๐ NIFTY 13 June 2025 Post-Market Analysis and Outlook for 16 June 2025
๐น Market Summary: 13 June 2025
The Nifty 50 closed marginally higher at 24,735.55, gaining +6.20 points (+0.03%) after a highly volatile week. The index opened at 24,728.55, touched an intraday high of 24,744.95, and remained range-bound throughout the day following a sharp selloff earlier in the week. Volumes remained healthy with 8.08M shares traded, but the mood was cautious ahead of the weekend.
๐ Technical Analysis
๐ต๏ธโโ๏ธ Chart Structure
- Timeframe: 5-minute chart
- Pattern Observed:
The market showed a classic gap-down recovery structure, with a sharp bounce post-9:15 AM followed by consolidation and minor higher lows till the end of the session. - Resistance Zone:
24,760โ24,800 (near Fridayโs high and psychological barrier) - Support Zone:
24,500โ24,540 (formed by Thursdayโs closing and Fridayโs low wick rejections) - Volume Profile:
Volume surged during the first recovery phase in the morning session, indicating aggressive short-covering or smart-money buying. Afternoon dips were bought into at low volume, indicating less panic selling.
๐ง Indicators Analysis
- RSI (14): ~47 on the 5-min chart โ neutral zone, slight upward slope.
- MACD: In early crossover mode on the hourly chart, indicating potential bullish reversal next session.
- Moving Averages:
- 20 EMA on 5-min is now flattening at ~24,710.
- 200 EMA (5-min) at ~24,810 โ acting as overhead dynamic resistance.
๐ NIFTY Outlook for Monday, 16 June 2025
๐ง Sentiment Outlook
- Global cues: Mixed performance from US and Asian indices on Friday.
- Domestic triggers: Awaiting macroeconomic data next week; liquidity is normalizing.
- FIIs/DIIs: FII data on Friday indicates mild buying; DIIs remained net buyers all week.
๐ Expected Scenarios for Monday
- Bullish Case:
- If Nifty breaks and sustains above 24,760, next targets will be 24,810, 24,880, and 25,000.
- Above 24,880, short covering can lead to a sharp rally.
- Bearish Case:
- A breakdown below 24,600 will bring back selling pressure.
- Targets on the downside: 24,540, 24,500, and worst-case 24,400.
- Neutral Range: 24,620โ24,760
This is likely the accumulation zone before a decisive breakout or breakdown.
๐ก Trading Strategy for 16 June 2025
โ๏ธ Intraday Trading Plan
| Strategy Type | Action Plan |
|---|---|
| Buy on Dips | Entry: 24,620โ24,650 |
| Breakout Buy | Entry: Above 24,760 |
| Short on Reversal | Entry: 24,740โ24,760 (if rejected) |
| Gap-Up Opening | Wait for pullback to VWAP or 24,710 before entering long |
| Gap-Down Opening | Watch for support at 24,540 and reversal patterns before buying |
๐ Positional Traders Outlook
- Positional trend remains range-bound to mildly bearish unless 24,880 is crossed.
- A close above 25,000 will confirm bullish continuation toward all-time highs.
- Below 24,500, a steeper correction toward 24,300 and 24,100 may be seen.
๐ Key Levels to Watch (16/06/2025)
| Type | Level (NIFTY) |
|---|---|
| Immediate Support | 24,620 โ 24,540 |
| Major Support | 24,500 โ 24,440 |
| Immediate Resistance | 24,760 โ 24,810 |
| Major Resistance | 24,880 โ 25,000 |
๐ Pro Tip
- Avoid early entries on Monday. Let the first 15โ30 mins range set the tone.
- Watch for breakout volume. Breakouts without volume are likely to trap.
- Keep an eye on Bank Nifty โ often leads Nifty directionally on Mondays.
- Watch global market openings (Asian session at 7:30โ9:30 AM IST and SGX Nifty cues).
๐ Conclusion
The Nifty 50 showed resilience today after a sharp decline this week, hinting at a potential bottom near 24,500. However, the index remains vulnerable below 24,760. Mondayโs price action will be critical to decide whether this is a reversal or just a pullback.
Traders should stay nimble and follow price-action around key zones, especially the 24,760โ24,810 resistance area. A decisive move above could trigger a short-covering rally, while rejection here may continue the downward trend.
